Technical Side

1、 Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), also known as moving average index, according to the principle of the average line of construction, the stock price of the closing price for smoothing, the arithmetic average after the calculation, Is a trend indicator.

MACD has two uses:
Homeopathic operation
Reversed trend

2、Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) analyzes the market’s intention and strength to buy trades by comparing the average closing gains and the average closing gains over a period of time to make future market movements.

1) Limited by the formula, regardless of how the price changes, the strength of the indicators are between 0 and 100 values.

2) Strong and weak indicators remain higher than 50 for the strong market, otherwise less than 50 for the weak market.

3) Strong and weak indicators fluctuate between 70 and 30. When the six-day index rose to 80, said the stock market has overbought phenomenon, if you continue to rise, more than 90 or more, then said to have been seriously overbought warning area, the stock has been the formation of the head, most likely in the short term Turn around.

4) When the six-day strength index fell to 20, said the stock market has oversold phenomenon, if once the continued decline to 10 below that has been seriously oversold area, the stock is likely to have the opportunity to rebound.

5) Each type of stock oversold overbought value is different, we take a stock to buy / sell before the action must first find the stock overbought / oversold level. As for the measurement of a stock overbought / oversold level, we can refer to the stock over the past 12 months, the strength of the index records.

6) When the strength index rose and the stock price fell, or the strength index fell and the stock price rise, this situation is called “divergence.” When the RSI in 70 to 80, the price break and RSI can not break the top, which formed a “top divergence”, and when the RSI in 30 to 20, the price break and RSI can not break through the end of the formation of the ” Bottom divergence “. This kind of strength index and stock price changes, the resulting deviation from the phenomenon, is usually considered a major reversal of the market signal.

3、KDJ

Created by George C. Lane . It combines the advantages of momentum, strength indicators and the advantages of moving average, used to measure the price out of the price range of the normal range of variation.

KDJ indicators to consider not only the closing price, but also the recent high and lowest prices, which avoid only consider the closing price and ignore the real volatility of the weaknesses. Stochastic (KDJ) is generally based on the principle of statistics, through a specific period (often 9, 9 weeks, etc.) appeared in the highest price, the lowest and the last calculation cycle of the closing price and the three of the and then calculate the K value, the D value and the J value according to the smooth moving average method, and draw the curve to judge the stock trend.

The stochastic index (KDJ) is calculated on the basis of the highest price, the lowest price and the closing price. The K value, the D value and the J value are respectively formed at a point on the coordinates of the index, and the number of such points , To form a complete, can reflect the trend of price fluctuations KDJ indicators. It is mainly the use of price fluctuations in the real volatility to reflect the strength of the price trend and overbought oversold phenomenon, the price has not yet risen or decline before the issue of a signal of trading technology. It is mainly in the design process to study the relationship between the highest price, the lowest price and the closing price, but also combines the momentum concept, strength index and the moving average of some of the advantages, therefore, can be more rapid, fast and intuitive to judge Quotes. As the KDJ line is essentially a random fluctuations in the concept, so the grasp of short-term market trend is more accurate.

4、BOLL indicators – Bollinger Bands

The BOLL indicator is a very simple and practical technical analysis index designed by American stock market analyst John Brin based on the standard deviation principle in statistics. In general, the stock price movement is always around a certain value center (such as moving average, cost line, etc.) within a certain range of changes, Bollinger Index indicators is based on the above conditions, the introduction of the “stock channel” Concept, which argues that the width of the stock price channel changes with the magnitude of the volatility of the stock price, and the price channel has variability, it will automatically adjust with the stock price changes. It is because of its flexibility, intuitive and trend characteristics, BOLL indicators gradually become widely used in the market indicators of popular investors.

Among the many technical analysis indicators, BOLL indicators are more special class of indicators. The vast majority of technical analysis indicators are constructed by the number of methods, they do not rely on trend analysis and morphological analysis, and BOLL indicators are the shape and trend of stock prices are inextricably linked. BOLL indicators in the “price channel” concept is the intuitive expression of stock price trend theory. Boll is the use of “stock channel” to show the various price of the stock price, when the stock price fluctuations are small, in the consolidation, the stock channel will narrow, which may indicate the stock price fluctuations in a temporary calm period; when the stock price fluctuations Of the stock channel on the track, indicating that the stock price is very intense upward volatility is about to begin; when the stock price fluctuations beyond the narrow stock channel under the track, also indicates that the stock price of the fierce downward volatility will begin.

Investors often encounter two of the most common traps of trade, one is to buy low traps, investors in the so-called low after the purchase, the stock has not only fell but continue to fall; the second is to sell high traps, stocks in the so-called high Point to sell, the stock has been rising all the way. Brin line in particular the use of Einstein’s theory of relativity, that all kinds of markets are interactive, the market and the market changes are relative, there is no absolute, the price level is relative , The stock price above or below the trajectory only reflects the stock price is relatively high or lower, investors make investment judgments before the comprehensive reference to other technical indicators, including price matching, psychological indicators, analogy indicators , The correlation between the market data. In short, BOLL indicators in the stock price channel to predict the trend of the future market plays an important reference role, it is also the Bollinger Bands indicators unique means of analysis.

5、CCI homeopathic indicator

Homeopathic index, also known as CCI indicator, the English called “Commodity Channel Index”, it is the first to use for the futures market judgments, after the use of the stock market for judgments, and is widely used. Unlike most of the various technical analysis indicators invented by the closing price, opening price, the highest price or the lowest price of the stock, the CCI indicator is based on the principle of statistics, the difference between the introduction price and the average price of the stock price during the fixed period Concept, emphasizing the average absolute deviation of stock prices in the stock market technical analysis of the importance of a more unique technical analysis indicators.

Among the commonly used technical analysis indicators, CCI (homeopathic index) is the most peculiar one. The CCI indicator does not have a limit on the area of operation, and varies between positive and negative infinity, but unlike all other indicators that do not have a run zone limit, it has a relative technical reference area: +100 and -100. According to the common analysis of indicators, CCI indicators of the operating range is divided into three categories: +100 or more for the overbought zone, -100 below the oversold area, +100 to -100 between the shock zone, but the indicators in this The technical implications of the operations in the three regions are different from the definition of overbought and oversold for other technical indicators. First in the shock zone between +100 and -100, the indicator is basically meaningless, can not be on the broader market and the operation of the stock to provide a number of clear recommendations, so it is normal in the case is invalid. This also reflects the characteristics of the indicators – CCI indicators is designed specifically for the extreme situation, that is, in the normal normal market, CCI indicators will not work, when the CCI scan to abnormal stock price fluctuations, Quick decision, the outcome of the moment immediately break, gambling lost must also immediately end.

6、ADX Average Directional Indicator

The ADX – Average Directional Indicator is another commonly used for trend measuring. And the trend system (DMI) by Welles Wilder (Welles Wilder) by the use of long and short trends in the difference between the difference between the average price to determine the trend of stock prices can reflect the trend of the stock price trend, but can not Control the band profit level, therefore, the occurrence of a lot of signal frequency and profit is not stable, often used to assist other indicators of system operation.

ADX can not tell you the direction of development. However, if the trend exists, ADX can measure the intensity of the trend. Regardless of rising trend or downward trend, ADX looks the same. The more ADX readings, the more obvious the trend. To measure the intensity of the trend, you need to compare a few days ADX readings, observe whether the ADX is up or down. ADX readings rise, representing the trend of strong; if the ADX readings, which means that the trend weakened. When the ADX curve rises, the trend is growing, and should continue to develop. If the ADX curve declines, the trend begins to weaken, and the likelihood of reversal increases. Alone on the ADX itself, because the indicators behind the price trend, so it is not a good indicator, not suitable for operation on the ADX alone. However, if used in conjunction with other metrics, ADX can confirm whether there is a trend in the market and measure the intensity of the trend.

7、Momentum indicators

Momentum indicators, also known as MTM indicators, the English full name is “Momentom Index”, is a specialized study of stock price fluctuations in the short-term technical analysis tools. Momentum index to analyze the speed of stock price fluctuations for the purpose of the stock price in the process of fluctuations in a variety of acceleration, deceleration, inertia and the price of static or moving from the static or static phenomenon. The theoretical basis of the momentum index is the relationship between price and supply and demand, the stock price increase over time, must be gradually reduced, the speed of change slowly slowed down, the market can be reversed. On the contrary, the fall is no different. Momentum index is this by calculating the speed of stock price volatility, the stock price into the strong peak and into the weak trough and other different signals, thus becoming a favorite investor a market tool.

The change in the volatility of the stock price in the volatility can be reflected by the momentum of the daily momentum curve. In the momentum index graph, the horizontal line represents the time and the vertical line represents the momentum range. Momentum to 0 as the center line, that is, the speed zone, the upper part of the center line is the stock price rise, the lower part of the stock fell, the momentum line according to the stock price around the center line cyclical round-trip movement, thus reflecting the speed of stock price fluctuations.

8、Gann Fan

Gann Fan, is a common technical analysis tool for domestic investors. However, due to the uniqueness of this tool, some stock analysis software is not well understood by the operator. It is no doubt that it is a pity that you can enjoy the powerful city of Gann. The angle line is an important part of the Gann theory series, it has a very intuitive analysis effect, according to the angle line provides criss-cross the trend line, can help the analyst to make clear the trend to judge. Thus, the angle line is a set of cheap and analytical methods, any person can rarely learn very little time.

When it comes to the meaning of the angle line, Gann declared: “When the time and price form a square, the city is running close to the front.” The angle line is not a general trend line, according to the concept of time and space twice To promote a unique analysis system. Therefore, some analysts have pointed out that the angle line is Gann’s greatest invention, which opens the time and price irreconcilable but inseparable pattern, from the operational point of view, this is the technical theory even the most valuable part.

Thus, the production of Gann line to have a quadrilateral concept, the so-called square is also a square to the diagonal 45 degrees as a quadrilateral twist, it represents the time and price in a balanced relationship, if according to a Mode of time, the price at the same time to reach this equilibrium point, the market will be a major shock.

Gann line is the relationship between price and time in Gann theory.
The most important concept in Gann’s theory is the relationship between Gann line and price movement.
Gann line establishes the time on the X axis, establishes the price on the Y axis, the sign of the Gann line is “TxP”, T is the time, P is the price.

Gann line defines the price movement from the time unit and the price unit, and each Gann line is determined by the relationship between time and price. Draw the Gann line from the obvious vertex and the bottom of the map, and they cross each other to form the relationship between Gann lines. They can not only determine when the price will be reversed, but also to indicate which price will be reversed, constitute a wonderful harmony of time and price.

Gann line of the basic ratio of 1: 1, that is, every unit of time, the price to run a unit. In addition, there are 1 / 8,2 / 8,1 / 3,3 / 8,4 / 8,5 / 8,2 / 3,6 / 8,7 / 8 and so on. Each Gann line has its corresponding geometric angle.

9、SAR

SAR / The Parabolic Time / Price System is also known as the Stop Loss Direction. “Stop”, refers to stop loss,which requires investors to buy and sell a stock before the first set a stop price to reduce the investment risk. And this stop price is not always the same, it is with the stock price fluctuations stop bit should also continue to adjust. How to effectively control the potential risks, and will not miss the opportunity to earn greater returns, is the pursuit of each investor’s goal. But the stock market is unpredictable, and different stocks at different times the trend is different, if the stop is too high, it may appear in the stock when the adjustment down to sell, and sell the stock from the start Round the new rally, missed the opportunity to earn greater profits, on the contrary, the stop position is too low, it simply can not achieve the role of risk control. Therefore, how to accurately set the stop bit is a variety of technical analysis theory and indicators described by the purpose, and SAR indicators in this area has its unique function.
“Reverse”, literally means reverse operation, which requires investors to decide investment in stocks before the set stop loss position, when the price reaches the stop price, the investors not only to the early purchase of the stock Open positions, but also in the open at the same time can be short-term operation in order to maximize the benefits to seek. This approach can be used in the securities market with short mechanism. At present, China’s domestic market is not allowed to be short, so investors mainly use two methods. First, when the stock price falls below the stop price, wait and see, the second is when the stock price break up the SAR indicator shows the stock price pressure,buy timelyor hold it waiting for rise.

10、Rate of changeROC

ROC is the day by the stock price and a certain number of days before the day of the stock price comparison, the size of the change in speed to reflect the speed of changes in the stock market. Most of the books on the ROC called variable speed indicators, variable rate indicators or rate of change indicators. The translation from the original English should be the rate of change.

1) ROC indicates the rate at which the stock price rises or falls.
If the ROC is positive, and ROC step by step, it means that the upward trend is accelerating, if the ROC began to go flat, which means that now the stock price rose with a few days ago, the stock price rose similar, despite But the rate has been slowed down; if the ROC began to fall, although the stock is still rising, but the rising power has declined; if ROC began to extend below 0, the recent downward trend has begun outcrop, ROC further Down, then the downward momentum is being strengthened.
ROC is the relative spread of the stock price showing both ends of a certain time interval. ROC rose, then the stock price than a few days ago the stock has risen. ROC go flat, then the current share price rose just the same as the same day. ROC down, then the stock has been smaller than the number of days or small. ROC is the way to show the current stock price trend of acceleration and deceleration.
For the downward trend and ROC decline, and the negative situation, can be described similarly.

2) ROC changes ahead of changing in stock prices
Because of the structural characteristics of the ROC, ROC changes are always ahead of the price changes, rising or falling a few days ahead of the price. When the stock price is still rising, ROC may have been flat, and the stock price to go, ROC may have dropped. This is also the basic basis for thinking away from the idea.

3) ROC changes in a certain range
ROC can be negative, can be small or small, but the ROC changes are basically a range. In other words, we can find a positive number and a negative number, so that most of the ROC curve falls within the range of the two numbers, that is, smaller than the positive number. In this way, it is like to add up and down the border with the ROC. These two borders are helpful for our future forecast of rising prices and falling depths. We can use these two boundaries through the reverse operation of the method to calculate the future height of the rise and fall.

1、蜡烛图(K线理论)

K线就是指将各种股票每日、每周、每月的开盘价、收盘价、最高价、最低价等涨跌变化状况,用图形的方式表现出来 K线最上方的一条细线称为上影线,中间的一条粗线为实体。下面的一条细线为下影线。当收盘价高于开盘价,也就是股价走势呈上升趋势时,我们称这种情况下的 K线为阳线,中部的实体以空白或红色表示。这时,上影线的长度表示最高价和收盘价之间的价差,实体的长短代表收盘价与开盘价之间的价差,下影线的长度则代表开盘价和最低价之间的差距。

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2、趋势交易法

趋势,简单地说,就是指某一特定周期内价格的变动方向。趋势的方向分为:上升趋势、下降趋势和横向整理(也叫无趋势)。

1) 上升趋势
在某一周期内,市场价格不断突破前一浪的高点,创出新高,在回调过程中却不跌破前一浪的低点的过程。

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2) 下降趋势
在某一周期内,市场价格不断跌破前一浪的低点,创出新低,在回调过程中却不跌破前一浪的高点的过程。

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3) 横向整理(无趋势)
在某一周期内,市场价格无力突破前一浪的高点,之后又无力跌破前一浪的低点,这样一直维持的过程就是横向整理。
总之,趋势交易简单来说就是跟随趋势,在上升趋势中,执行买入;在下降趋势中执行卖出。

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3、波浪理论

艾略特波浪理论是最常用的趋势分析工具之一。群体心理是该理论的重要依据,不活跃或流通性差的交易市场难以发挥它的作用。波浪理论可以在趋势确立之时预测趋势何时结束,是现存最好的一种预测工具。波动原理有三个重要概念:波的型态、波幅比率、持续时间。其中最重要的是型态。波有两个基本型态:推进波5-3-5-3-5和调整波5-3-5。

八波浪详述

  • 第1浪
    循环的开始,属于营造底部形态的一部分,涨幅通常为五浪中最短的行情。此时,买方力量并不强大,市场继续存在卖压。
  • 第2浪
    回档幅度往往很深,几乎吃掉第1浪升幅,人们误以为熊市尚未结束。此浪近底部时,市场惜售,抛售压力渐衰,成交量渐减,是为结束。2浪能在1浪底部上方打住,往往可构成三重底、双重底、倒头肩性底等图表形态。浪2的回撤总是小于浪1幅度的100%。
  • 第3浪
    此浪涨势往往最大,持续时间最长,在5浪结构中决不会最短。此时,投资者信心恢复,成交量大幅上升,时常出现突破信号。浪3的运动总会超过浪1的终点。
  • 第4浪
    调整浪,形态较复杂,构造与2浪不同,时常出现倾斜三角形走势,但其底部不会低于第1浪顶点。这是艾略特波浪理论的中心法则之一。4浪在以后的熊市中起到显著的支撑作用。通常这一轮熊市不会跌过比它低一层次的、前面牛市中形成的第4浪,可用来测算价格下跌的最远目标。但也有例外。  股市中的4浪不可以与1浪有重叠,这是铁律;但在期货市场不那么严格。
  • 第5浪
    在股市中涨势通常小于第3浪,并且常出现失败情况;而在期货市场中,第5浪经常是最长的,并有可能出现延伸浪。第5浪中,许多验证性指标,如OBV等,开始落后于价格变化。
  • A浪
    仅为一暂时的回档现象,实际上在第5浪中已有警告信号。多数人认为上升行情尚未逆转,只是当A浪出现5浪结构时才认识到它的到来。
  • B浪
    成交量不大,一般为旧有多头的逃命线,也是建立新空头头寸的第二次机会。由于是一段上升行情,易使人误以为另一涨势,成为多头陷阱,许多人在此被套牢。  此浪有可能上试旧高点构成双重顶,甚至先越过旧高点才向下。
  • C浪
    破坏力极强的下跌浪,跌势强劲、跌幅大、持续时间长,出现全面性下跌。C浪的出现,宣告上升趋势的真正结束。C浪跌过A浪的底,形成卖出信号。将4浪和A浪的底连一直线,有时构成头肩形。波浪的浪数序列服从费波尼西数列。

4、道氏理论(Dow theory) ——技术图表派的基础

道琼斯理论,道氏理论是所有市场技术研究的鼻祖。它是根据价格模式的研究,推测未来价格行为的一种方法。道氏理论有三个核心思想,即三重运动原理、相互验证原则和投机原理。

(1)三重运动原理
在三重运动原理中,道氏将市场的走势分为三种运动,即基本运动、次级运动以及日常波动。
在结构上,三重运动是指基本的上升或下降运动、次级下跌或反弹以及永不停歇的日常波动,在股票市场的发展过程中同时存在着这三种运动,彼此的方向可能相同也可能相反。在可预侧性方面,大级别的基本运动是最重要的,基本运动的规律能够为我们所把握,但次级运动带有一定的欺骗性,虽然可以被认识,但是难以准确把握,而日常波动这样小级别的运动具有很强的随机性,根本不可能被我们所把握。这是由于三个级别运动的运作机理不同。在时间上,日常波动,持续数天至数个星期;次级运动,持续数个星期至数个月;基本运动,持续数个月至数年。任何市场中,这三种趋势必然同时存在。
 
(2)相互验证原则
相互验证原则,通过相关性来验证结论的正确性,通过认识市场以及再认识市场,不断重复理论与实践的循环来验证市场与我们的预测之间的关系。
对于两个有较强相关性的品种或指数,当它们之间的走势一致的时候,其中一个品种或指数的走势可以得到另一个品种或指数的验证,这意味着趋势还将继续;当它们之间的走势背离的时候,则其中一个品种或指数的走势不能得到另一个品种或指数的验证,这意味着趋势难以继续。利用计算机建立模式,当我们得到相关系数ρ1达到70%以上,且相关系数ρ2在50%以上时,我们就可以认为两个变量存在着较强的相关性。

(3)投机原理
投机原理,所谓投机也就是我们的预期是否能够在市场中得到贴现,可以说市场中已经包含了我们对于市场的预期,我们的预期是市场中不可分割的组成部分,因此投机也是市场的成分之一。可以这样说,市场之所以可以被预测正是由于我们在预测市场,所以预测就是我们在预测我们的预测,以个体来对群体行为的预测。因此,我们和我们预侧的市场是一对对立统一体。

5、江恩理论

江恩理论是威廉•江恩(William Delbert Gann)在美国资本市场上总结的一套投资理论。江恩告诫投资者:在你投资之前请先细心研究市场,因为你可能会作出与市场完全相反的错误的买卖决定,同时你必须学会如何去处理这些错误。一个成功的投资者并不是不犯错误,因为在证券市场中面对千变万化、捉摸不定的市场,任何一个人都可能犯错误,甚至是严重的错误。但成败的关键是成功者懂得如何去处理错误,不使其继续扩大;而失败者因犹豫不决、优柔寡断任错误发展,并造成更大的损失。江恩理论的构成:

  • 江恩二十一条买卖法则
  • 江恩十二条买卖规则
  • 江恩回调法则
  • 江恩循环理论
  • 江恩波动法则
  • 江恩分割比率
  • 江恩市场几何原理
  • 江恩测市工具

江恩认为有三大原因可以造成投资者遭受重大损失:

1) 在有限的资本上过度买卖。也就是说操作过分频繁,在市场中的短线和超短线是要求有很高的操作技巧的,在投资者没有掌握这些操作技巧之前,过分强调做短线常会导致不小的损失。

2) 投资者没有设立止损点以控制损失。很多投资者遭受巨大损失就是因为没有设置合适的止损点,结果任其错误无限发展,损失越来越大。因此学会设置止损点以控制风险是投资者必须学会的基本功之一。还有一些投资者,甚至是一些市场老手,虽然设了止损点,但在实际操作中并不坚决执行,结果因一念之差,遭受巨大损失。

3) 缺乏市场知识,是在市场买卖中损失的最重要原因。一些投资者并不注重学习市场知识,而是想当然办事或主观认为市场如何如何,不会辨别消息的真伪,结果接受错误误导,遭受巨大的损失。还有一些投资者仅凭一些书本上学来的知识来指导实践,不加区别的套用,造成巨大损失。江恩强调的是市场的知识,实践的经验。而这种市场的知识往往要在市场中摸爬滚打相当时间才会真正有所体会。

6、斐波那契回调线

斐波那契回调线是一个常用来确定支撑压力点位的实用外汇指标,熟练运用以后对于外汇黄金实盘操作非常有帮助。

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如何画斐波那契回调线? 斐波那契回调线一般选取的是前期高点和近期低点,点选工具栏中的斐波那契回调线图标,如果你要查看的是跌势中的压力和支撑,那么点击价格高点,按住鼠标然后移动到低点放开。如果要看涨势的,则反向操作。

7、多K线组合持续反转形态

K线作为外汇交易中技术分析最常用的手段,其优势在于它适用于任何市场和任何时间框架——只要你拥有开盘机,收盘价,最高价和最低价。最常见的K线反转组合有如下7种:

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1) 十字星

开收盘十分接近的形态,这是最为重要的单个K线形态之一,意味着多空博弈尤为激烈,或者供需形势均衡,也是上升趋势可能终结的信号。

另一种变体墓碑十字是开收盘都在全天低点附近,虽然此种形态也会在底部出现,但更多情况下是在高位被甄别。

2) 弃婴形态

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十分罕见的三根K线组合。一根实体较长的k线跟上跳空的十字星,然后逆向再收出调控实体k线。这是典型的反转形态,也是“岛形反转”的变体。

3) 包络线

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在一系列上升k线后,一根高开的长阴将之前多跟k线吞没。长阴的高开意味着多方最后的共识被空方的反扑无情吞没。西方也将此种形态作为关键反转日。

4) 锤子线

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是重要的底部形态,实体较短而下影线很长,影线甚至能够达到实体的两倍以上。在很多情况下,金针探底的样式“扎出”了市场的短时或长期底部。

5) 吊人线

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形态和锤子线相反,但该形态出现在一连串升势的尾声。下影线暗示空方开始发力,虽然尾盘收复,但空方已听到先期部队进攻的冲锋号。以上两种形态需要第二天转折行情予以确认。

6) 孕线

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长实体的K线收完后紧接着出现一个在实体内部的小K线。该形态的可靠性不及吊人线、和包络线,但也容易出现在头部或底部行情中。

7) 晨星和黄昏之星

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类似弃婴的形态组合,但中间的顶部或底部小k线实体略长,同时隔天的跳空未必留下缺口。意义和弃婴也类似,提示市场转折。
以上就是K线中最常见的几种反转形态,在K线图中出现的时候,交易者就要对行情进行关注,当然,也不能说只要出现了就一定会出现反转的情况,技术分析只能做为参考的依据,不要完全依赖。

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